Week 8 Recap

AndyDaltonI dropped 3 out of 5 games this week and finished with a disappointing weekly winning percentage of 40%.  I may be getting a little lazy with watching my games.  I try to go back and watch almost all of the games in addition to other research but only got to about half last week.  The grind of studying the teams is kind of getting to me.  This week may not be much better unless I get lucky.  Unless I just pick a couple games I’m sure about.  Hopefully, I’ll feel rejuvenated after a couple of slack weeks heading into week 10.

WINS

(W) Minnesota Vikings 23 Chicago Bears 20

This was a bet that the Vikings would beat a 1 point spread against them. They handled business and got it done.  Chicago looks dangerous with Alshon Jeffery back. More dangerous than expected, so I won’t be picking against them anytime soon. Chicago’s defense is holding up nicely despite having new players along the defensive line.  

(W) Cincinnati Bengals 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 10

This game was far lower scoring than I predicted. It started out fast but the two team couldn’t sustain the level of offensive output. The Steelers defense was too good and Ben Roethlisberger was too rusty, which was something that I predicted. The Bengals capitalized on that rustiness and got me the win by beating the 1 point spread against them.

LOSSES

(L) Seattle Seahawks 16 Dallas Cowboys 15

I lost this game by betting the Seahawks would cover a 6 point spread in their favor.  Dallas continues to play well – defensively at least – with Tony Romo out.  That was part of the reason the Seahawks couldn’t cover.  More importantly, though, I think that Russell Wilson is not making the plays he made the last couple of years.  It always looked so incredible when he would roll out, bide time, and sling a 30 pass down field to a barely open receiver on the sideline.  Those plays aren’t happening right now for Seattle, and the reason may be as simple as the law of large numbers catching up.

(L) Green Bay Packers 10 Denver Broncos 29

I lost this game predicting that the Packers would cover a 3 point spread in their favor.  Denver’s offense has looked terrible all year long, but showed up for this game.  Their defense played lights out at home, which is the more important trend to consider moving forward.  I expect uneven offensive performance from Peyton Manning and am not ready to buy into the idea he just needed time to adjust to the new system.

(L) Indianapolis Colts 26 Carolina Panthers 29

This game was the difference maker for me.  If I win this game, I would have ended with a 3-2 record and a winning percentage of 60%.  And that looked to be a good bet with the Panthers up by double digits going into the fourth quarter.  Andrew Luck did Andrew Luck things by sucking butt all game long and then scrambling at the end to keep the score close. I should have expected as much but really thought the home advantage would carry Carolina to cover a 6 1/2 point spread.  Betting against Luck is something I’ll stay away from in the future.  He always scores points late.

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